THE ELECTION COUNTDOWN BEGINS

By Alan O’Kelly  

We have 9 days to go until the General Election. 

Up and down the country thousands of candidates and activists are braving the cold, ice and darkness to knock on doors, stand outside train stations talking to voters and hoping that their message connects with the electorate. Parliament was officially dissolved on 6th November, meaning we are now about two thirds through the campaign. At this point all main parties have published their manifestos, we have seen a number of debates between the party leaders, and postal voters have already started casting their ballots. While 9 days may not seem like a long time to change a campaign, as has been noted over and over again ‘a week is a long time in politics’.  So what do the three main parties have to do between now and Election Day.

Conservatives

For Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party the approach is relatively straightforward- don't mess it up!  Polls put the Conservatives anywhere between 7-13 points ahead of Labour. Recent YouGov research suggests that, at the moment, the Tories could be set for a majority of 60 plus seats. Throughout the campaign, almost all polls have put the party consistently ahead of Labour. However, candidates, activists and the party leadership will be nervous, they have heard this story before in 2017 and that ended in a hung parliament. Politics is littered with stories about parties and candidates were certain to win right up to the moment their opponent is declared the winner. For the Tories, the focus will be on Brexit and NHS.

Labour Party

In 2017 Labour went from being 20 points behind the Conservatives at the outset of that campaign, they managed to pull nearly level. Their 2019 campaign has not really matched that campaign. Polls have shown them consistently behind the Conservatives. In fairness, some of this is due to the Conservative campaign that is more disciplined and focussed leaving little opportunity to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses. But equally, it appears that their neutral message on Brexit is failing to connect with the electorate.  Labour need to ensure leave voters don't desert them to the Conservative Party which appears to be happening.  Labour now reckon that they will pick up seats in London at the expense of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats; they will now focus on shoring up their support in leave voting constituencies.

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrat campaign has really not caught fire, and will it ever?  

From the outset they made the decision to focus the campaign on their newly installed leader, Jo Swinson and unfortunately it hasn't really worked yet. Instead a recent survey showed that the more voters saw of Jo Swinson, the less they liked her.  For the Liberal Democrats there is a real need to break through to the electorate. Recent polls make for grim reading for the Lib Dems, showing that they may be unlikely to make huge gains.  In fairness to the Liberal Democrats, they are not trying to win seats in every constituency. Their aim is to turn out their votes in key seats across London and the South East of the country. If they can get their voters to the polls, and capitalise on less than stellar Labour campaign, they can still win a significant number of seats. Expect to see a lot of focus on key seats in  Richmond, Putney and Finchley and Golders Green.

Images Image Credit - Wikipedia

Boris Johnson This file is licensed under the United Kingdom Open Government Licence v3.0

J. Corbyn and J.Swinson - Chris McAndrew, Official Portraits

SHARE MY OPINION OR ELSE

 By Alan O’Kelly

You may have come across the story about the famous actress, talk show host and LGBT activist Ellen DeGeneres. For those of you who don’t know the story, Ellen while attending an American football game, sat beside former U.S President George W.Bush. For American Football aficionados out there, it was Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers.  The response on social media was swift and unrelenting. Most of the anger arose from Bush's poor record on LGBTQ rights. For example, one of his key promises in the 2004 election was a constitutional change barring same-sex marriage, which came to nothing. As a prominent LGBTQ activist Ellen was criticised for not just sitting beside him, but for also clearly engaging and enjoying his company.

When the internet was first introduced, the expectation was that it would open up a world of debate and discussion where people's views and ideas would be enlightened by hearing from people whose views differed. In fact, the opposite has happened, communities have become tribal, willing to hear only from those who agree with us or whose views essentially conform to what we already think.

How can we ever have civilised conversations or enhance our knowledge when people and their individual views are being so easily dismissed?

A recent study for the independent found that more than one in 20 Britons (6 percent) say they have fallen out with or stopped speaking to a family member, and almost one in 12 (8 percent) have fallen out with a friend due to disagreement over Brexit. Regardless of which side a person is on - to truly understand the world I believe that listening to both sides of a debate is healthy, and by kicking people out of one’s social circle we are simply narrowing our worldview. Of course, this is not to say we should tolerate abhorrent views, but rather we need to reverse the trend where people become defined simply and completely by their differing views.

And if nothing else, as Ellen rightly said: "I’m friends with a lot of people who don’t share the same beliefs that I have. We’re all different. And I think that we’ve forgotten that that’s OK that we’re all different.”